This past Tuesday the voters of Newfoundland and Labrador went to vote (Or 57% of all eligible voters) in the province's 19th election since Confederation. Here are my thoughts, district by district, of the results:
Baie Verte Springdale: There was some talk that the Liberals could have won here. That's a claim that I found laughable. This area of the province has been PC for 27 of the past 29 years and used to be the political home of former premiers, Brian Peckford and Tom Rideout. Combine with the fact Kevin Pollard is a good PC candidate and you have all the ingredients of a win here for the PC's.
Bay Of Islands: A bit of a disappointment for me here as though I had heard that the PC candidate here, Terry Loder, was in trouble. That said I figured that the voters here wouldn't want to go back to the old guard and Eddie Joyce but that's what happened. Historians of Newfoundland politics will remember that Eddie Joyce once stepped aside so that a Liberal leader could have a seat in the House of Assembly, wonder if that's what he does here.
Bellevue: While the Liberals retained official opposition status and gained seats in this election, the fact that they lost in Bellevue again has to hurt. They where running a well known candidate here in Pam Pardy Ghent and actually finished 3rd. The PC MHA here, Calvin Peach, is considered extremely hard working so his win by over 1600 votes should surprise no one.
Bonavista North: I had this seat as 1 to watch given the Liberal history here, that said Eli Cross won the seat by 205 votes which is good for a 1st time candidate and keeps the seat in the PC column for the 3rd straight election, this after being Liberal for much of it's 62 year history. Eli's father, George Cross, was MHA here from 1975-1979 and again from 1982-1985
Bonavista South: Really thought this race would have been closer given the strength of the NDP candidate. The PC's though winning this seat is largely a given as they've held it for 35 of the past 39 years and only lost in 1989 by 20 votes.
Burgeo and Lapoile: Another historic Liberal seat. The PC candidate there, Colin Short, did as good as any PC candidate would be able to do there. He's relatively young so who knows? Maybe a run in 2015 could happen for him.
Burin Placentia West: The real nail-biter of the evening as this seat went back and forth. That district is going through tough economic times which are beyond the control of government. Clyde Jackman is an effective M.H.A. and hope the next 4 years prove to be strong years for the economy of that district which has always been boom or bust as long as I can remember.
Cape St.Francis: You know the old saying about running a dog in a district for a certain party and the dog would win? Well that is true for a PC in Cape St.Francis. Kevin Parsons is far from a dog, mind you, and is a strong candidate. This win shows a lot for the PC brand in this seat as the NDP ran Torbay Deputy Mayor, Geoff Gallant here (Regarded by many as a star candidate) still finished over 1500 votes behind.
Carbonear Harbour Grace: No surprise here as Jerome Kennedy won his seat. I also think Jerome got the biggest margin of victory of any candidate in the province during this election.
Cartwright Lanse Au Clair: No surprise here as to the winning party as this seat has never gone PC, I thought that the PC candidate, Glen Acreman, was strong and would have made it closer. I wonder what role Yvonne Jones will play in the Liberal party over this term as she is the only Liberal elected this year that sat in the House between 2007 and 2011, maybe opposition house leader? Yvonne's a name to watch, in my opinion, for the federal Liberal nomination in Labrador for the next federal election.
Conception Bay East Bell Island: David Brazil won re-election here, the Liberals which held this seat for 14 years( 1989-2003) finished a distant third here. This is the seat of the late great Dianne Whalen.
Conception Bay South: Another election, another landslide win for Terry French. French is another MHA within the PC caucus under 50 that I think will be a strong candidate for the party for years to come.
Exploits: When people say you have done more for a district than a former premier and high-profile cabinet minister did then you know you're doing something right. Clayton Forsey has developed a reputation for doing more for the Exploits district the past 6 years than Roger Grimes did during his 16 years there ( 12 of which where spent as a cabinet minister and premier).
Ferryland: Keith Hutchings is another PC MHA under 50 that has a strong future ahead of him. Keith was the chief of staff to Loyola Sullivan when he was leader of the opposition back in the 90's.
Fortune Bay Cape La Hune: When people say nothing is happening in rural Newfoundland you can point them to this district. Aquaculuture is the main game here and it has certainly grown since Tracey Perry won the seat in 2007. Much like Bellevue the Liberal brand is gone here as the Liberal candidate, the mayor of Hr. Breton, Eric Skinner finished last of 3 candidates.
Gander: Kevin O'brien won his third straight election for the PC party albeit closer than his 2007 victory.
Grand Bank: On election day people where saying Darin King would be the first candidate declared elected. I don't know if that happened but Darin still won a convincing victory over Liberal Carol Anne Haley.
Grand Falls Windsor Buchans: There was a site that predicted the NDP would win here, though the NDP was surging in this election, it would take a lot for Susan Sullivan to be defeated here. This area has recovered quite well despite the mill closure and that's largely due to the work of government and Susan Sullivan.
Grand Falls Windsor Green Bay South: Merv Wiseman, the Liberal candidate here, is another person who doesn't know what party he wants to run for as he ran for a PC nomination in a 2008 by-election, ran in the 2008 federal election and ran here for the Liberals in 2011 losing all 3 times. Ray Hunter has been MHA for 12 years and was one of the 4 MHA's who where elected in the 1999 election that I think signalled the beginning of the end for the provincial Liberals (Subject of a blog in the coming weeks for me).
Harbour Main: To use a hockey anaology here, if the PC party in this province was to form a hockey team of its current MHA's Tom Hedderson would be my choice for Head Coach (Note: This is not to slight the premier in any way, she would be club president or something), the mild-mannered Hedderson is one of the nicest MHA's I've met in my 8 years involved with the party. He's held 4 cabinet posts so far and excelled in each one. No surprise at all to see him be re-elected
Humber East: If Tom Hedderson's the head coach, Tom Marshall's the GM, Marshall won a convincing victory and was the first MHA declared re-elected on Tuesday. The current finance minister is surely to stay in finance in the cabinet shuffle, if not finance I can see getting another high spot in cabinet.
Humber Valley: A disappointing result here for the PC's and Darryl Kelly. This seat has been close since the PC's took over. Dwight Ball, the new MHA, was MHA here for a few months in 2007. He's a decent guy and there are talks he's the next leader of the Liberal party in this province.
Humber West: The Liberals really had their hearts set on the political home of former premier Danny Williams, running deputy mayor of Corner Brook, Donna Luther here. Granter won convincingly by 1502 votes over Luther so the Liberals may have had their hearts set on winning the seat but the voters of Humber West decided to stick it out with Vaughn Granter, smart choice.
Kilbride: Former St.John's city councillor, John Dinn, won this seat for a 3rd time. No surprise as this seat has been PC since its inception in 1975 and Dinn is an effective and well liked MHA.
Lab West: If the NDP surge reached out of the St.John's area this was a seat many figured would go NDP. It stayed PC with a bigger margin of victory than a PC got during the Danny Williams era. Mcgrath is well known in the province as someone who is heavily involved in tourism.
Lake Melville: While I wasn't amazed at the winner in this district I was amazed that the Liberal candidate, Chris Montague, finished 3rd. This was Montague's 2nd time running in this district. He's well known in the district and aboriginal affairs in the province. Keith Russell was a member of the Nunasiavut government so he has previous government experience.
Lewisporte: Former school teacher, Wade Verge, won his 2nd straight victory in Lewisporte, a seat that was Liberal during the Moores era and PC during the Brian Tobin era. Another seat where the Liberals finished 3rd. Oh and the Lloyd Snow who ran here for the NDP is neither the former speaker of the house or the singer.
Mount Pearl North: Steve Kent had the funny farm going against him as his NDP opponent was Kurtis Coombs and the Liberal opponent was Maurice Budgell. Kent's strong in that area and even if his opponents where stronger he probably would have won anyway.
Mount Pearl South: Paul Lane continues on the great tradition in Mount Pearl of city councillors there going on to being MHA. Of all the new MHA's for the PC's Lane is the one I know the most and think he's going to be a strong voice for Mt.Pearl South.
Placentia St.Mary's: One of the disgruntled pharmacists ran here for the Liberals and finished 3rd. That could be more to say about the Liberal brand in this district than public perception of the pharmacy issue. I think the PC's could implode in this province and this seat would stay PC as it was PC for almost half of the last Liberal reign in this province.
Port Au Port: Joan Burke's former political assistant has carved out his own political career. The seat is known for having economic issues but I'm sure Cornect is doing his best to correct those.
Port De Grave: This seat had been Liberal for 26 years, to see it go to the PC's in this election in such a convincing fashion should cause alarm for the Liberal party. That said, Glen Littlejohn is a strong candidate and came close to winning there in 2007.
Signal Hill Quidi Vidi: Many have questioned why John Noseworthy would run here when he could have ran in a safer seat. I don't know the answer to those questions but I'm surprised at the big win for Lorraine Michael here.
St.Barbe: Every election you used to hear that Wally Young could be in trouble. That happened this time, unfortunately, albeit by 38 votes. The Liberal candidate and new MHA was Jim Bennett who won the historic Liberal seat back for the party.
St.George's Stephenville East: This was a seat everyone said the Liberals had to win. They did not win. This speaks a lot for the tremendous job Joan Burke has done as MHA in the Stephenville area. Kevin Aylward's future is the topic of a future blog but it's something to watch over the next little while.
St.John's Centre: There had been talk throughout the election that Shawn Skinner may face a battle to be re-elected in his seat. Never did I think he could lose. That is what happened. The loss of Skinner stings as he was a very effective cabinet minister for this government and a guy I had going for the leadership last year. Gerri Rogers is well-known however so I think her name won the seat, kudos to her for knocking off one of the top ministers in the PC government.
St.John's East: Also to my surprise was the NDP win here, George Murphy is something of a star candidate given his gas price reporting. The former taxi driver will have the common person approach so that helps. While this seat is historically PC, it was NDP from 1986-1989 and 1990-1996. The PC MHA there was Ed Buckingham who's been around the party for a while.
St.John's North: Bob Ridgley is a personal friend of mine so this loss is big for me but I saw it coming. Dale Kirby is considered by some to be a future leader of the provincial NDP, the Liberal candidate here got 201 votes. Also of note is this will be the first time since confederation that St.John's North will be in opposition in the province.
St.John's South: Tom Osborne is now the longest serving PC MHA, given the loss of Shawn Skinner you got to think Osborne will get back into cabinet and in a high spot. Osborne is a tremendous MHA so his win should surprise no one.
St.John's West: The closest race of all the St.John's districts, I figured the Liberal candidate here, George Joyce, would have done better. Congrats to Dan Crummel on his win here.
Terra Nova: Sandy Collins is the youngest MHA in the House of Assembly, if I'm not mistaken. The former political aide to former MHA Paul Oram is another name to watch in the future in the PC caucus.
The Isles Of Notre Dame: More proof that the Liberal brand is gone in this province as this historic Liberal seat stayed PC for the 2nd election in a row and in a landslide. Though Danny Dumaresque, the Liberal candidate, is not the greatest of candidates. That said Derrick Dalley is a bright young MHA and should go places in the PC party in the future.
The Straits White Bay North: The PC candidate here, Selma Pike, was someone I encouraged to run. She put forth a strong campaign but ultimately lost. What's surprising here is that the NDP candidate won. Apparently Chris Mitchelmore is a strong candidate so kudos to him for winning the seat, be interesting to see him in the House of Assembly being he's the only NDP candidate elected outside St.John's, actually he's the first NDP candidate elected outside St.John's on the island so he made history on Tuesday Night.
Topsail: Paul Davis easily won re-election on Tuesday. He has had health concerns but if those are behind him I can see him getting into cabinet.
Torngat Mountains: One of the hardest districts in the province to predict, the Liberal candidate here, Randy Edmunds, won the seat after using a speed boat to campaign from community to community this election.
Trinity Bay De Verde: The youngest women ever elected to sit in the House of Assembly, Johnson easily won re-election on Tuesday. There was talk very early in her political career that she has leadership aspirations, don't know if those still exist but she's certainly a strong MHA who has done well wherever she has gone in her political career.
Trinity North: Ross Wiseman got a lot of flak while he was health minister. It was very much un deserved. That said it's in the past and he remains one of the stronger cabinet ministers in the government. Brad Cabana ran here and got 344 votes.
Virignia Waters: Liberal leader Kevin Aylward was telling people that he thought his party had a chance to win this seat. While opposition leaders sometimes lose their seat in an election (As Aylward now knows), a sitting premier has never lost their seat in an election. The Liberal candidate here finished a distant third. Kathy Dunderdale was never in trouble in this district in my opinion.
Final Thoughts: 37 PC's, 6 Liberals, and 5 NDP is vastly different than my prediction of 43 PC's, 3 NDP's and 2 Liberals. That said while the PC's share of seats dropped it's still good for democracy to see a bigger opposition, congrats to all 48 winners, looking forward to seeing how the 48 perform over the next little while.
As for this blog yes it is biased towards the PC's but it's my blog and I'll be biased if I want it to be. These will be once a week and I welcome all feedback to my listed email. Thanks for reading.
